Trade War with China
First assault by Trump administration on China started in 2018 in form of tariffs on Chinese solar panels, washing machines, aluminum, steel and other products. By late 2018 & almost all of 2019 more and more products were subjected to new tariffs. China reciprocated by counter tariffs. In early October – US government blacklisted & banned 28 Chinese companies from doing business in US. Few weeks later President announced that an initial trade deal was reached after China agreed to buy more farm produce from US and allowed US financial firms access to Chinese markets. It was also announced that recent 15 % tariff will be reduced by the US government. It seems cooler heads are prevailing now and eventually there will be pressure on US government to resolve the trade war with a final deal. US wants to keep in mind the interests of workers and farmers of mid-western rust belt to reach a deal with China. Irrespective of whether a favorable deal is reached or not – markets will rejoice as soon as a ‘deal’ is reached. It is widely expected that sometime in 2020 the trade war will cool off.
First assault by Trump administration on China started in 2018 in form of tariffs on Chinese solar panels, washing machines, aluminum, steel and other products. By late 2018 & almost all of 2019 more and more products were subjected to new tariffs. China reciprocated by counter tariffs. In early October – US government blacklisted & banned 28 Chinese companies from doing business in US. Few weeks later President announced that an initial trade deal was reached after China agreed to buy more farm produce from US and allowed US financial firms access to Chinese markets. It was also announced that recent 15 % tariff will be reduced by the US government. It seems cooler heads are prevailing now and eventually there will be pressure on US government to resolve the trade war with a final deal. US wants to keep in mind the interests of workers and farmers of mid-western rust belt to reach a deal with China. Irrespective of whether a favorable deal is reached or not – markets will rejoice as soon as a ‘deal’ is reached. It is widely expected that sometime in 2020 the trade war will cool off.
FED
The table below shows the history of rate increases 9 times from 2015 till 2018 (yellow cells). In 2019 there were total 3 rate cuts. Now in December 2019 the rates are at 1.75 % down from high of 2.5 % exactly a year ago. FED trimmed rates 3 times in 2019 (July, Sept, Oct) which calmed high tension previailing in markets due to trade war uncertainties. There is quite a bit of room for FED to do additional cuts in 2020 and beyond if GDP starts going lower or if any new risks develop which can hurt the economy.
Risk of Recession
There is no crystal ball to predict negative GDP growth rates with good accuracy. The odds of an official recession are low given the ‘massive’ ability of FED to influence the bond markets. There are some statistical models for prediction and none of them are indicating obvious trouble in the US.
Much talked about ‘Inverted Yield Curve’ (IYC) has already bounced off from negative territory which calms down fears of recession. We however, have to be careful in rejoicing over this curve going back to +ve territory. Since 1950 a recession has followed after this curve inverted.
The other massive development in job market is Census 2020. More than 500,000 people will be hired in 2020 to complete once in 10 year feat. This will certainly boost the economy. Given all these factors it is difficult to make a case for an obvious recession in 2020. However, the same could said in 2007 where most leading indicators did not predict a recession so we have to remain cautious.
So where to invest in 2020?
Repeat of 2019 with 30 % gain in broad markets seems almost impossible in 2020. I am expecting volatility to return to the markets. This year I am suggesting a dynamic strategy where we start off the year with investments in Bond Market. One pick from international bond market EMB or BNDX and one pick from US sovereign bonds: TLT, BND or IEF. When there is a 15 % correction in SP 500 index from current value on 31st December of 3230.78 we sell out our positions in Bond ETFs and enter equity markets through VOO or IVV or dividend rich ETFs like VIG, SCHD or FVD. We can make another rotation back from equities to bonds if we gain back 15 % (3230.78 on SP 500 ). We have to make volatility to work in our favor in 2020. I am recommending to stay away from corporate bonds and commodities.
PS: Leave comments if any ideas or suggestions!
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