US Economy is now in the 10 year of expansion. Calendar year Q4 of 2018 was devastating for the stock market which have put market participants in a cautious mode. Everyone is convinced that ‘Recession’ is inevitable but the only question is ‘when’. Currently unemployment rate is at 49 year low. Wages have started rising in US. WTI Crude oil futures have declined 40 % from the peak in October 2018 now trading at $45 per barrel. Lower energy prices give more purchasing power for consumers. GDP estimates for next 2 quarters are not negative yet. Tax Cuts & Jobs Act which became law in 2017 lowered corporate income tax from 35 % to 21 % and most personal tax returns will likely result in higher refunds. Inflation reported by CPI is hovering less than 3 %. It is hard to make a case for an obvious ‘recession’ in 2019 given these +ve data points. There will be interest rate hikes by FED in 2019. But depending on how fast FED hikes interest rates - Yield Curve can enter -ve zone very