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Investment Theme for 2021

  In 2020 we saw decoupling of ground realities and stock markets. The reason is due to government monetary policies which were very accommodative and most countries responded with massive deficit spending to overcome the shocks to economy due to virus. We know that stock markets are forward looking which means investors have a great deal of optimism in future economy. In 2021 we can expect the interest rates to remain historically low and continued support from government in form of stimulus. With historically high cash balances and very low interest rates in bond markets – risk assets like stocks are still best haven to park money. There are two key factors in 2021 when it comes to US. First is the effectiveness of the vaccine for COVID-19 and further spread of the virus. Second prospect is the partisan control of US Senate. If both executive and legislative branches of US government are held by same party then markets can expect long pending reforms in infrastructure, immigration, e

Scorecard for 2020

  (1) Buy Bond ETFs (EMB/TLT) at open of market in 2020 on Jan 2nd (2)  When S&P 500 corrects by 15 % from close of Dec 31, 2019 to 2746.16 we exit these positions S&P 500 was 3230.78 on 12/31/2019. 15 % correction happened on Mar 11th, 2020 when it closed at 2,741.38 (2)  Sell EMB and TLT on Mar 11th, 2020 (3)  Buy VOO and VIB on Mar 12th, 2020 Sell VOO and VIG as soon as S&P 500 crawls back 15 % to 3230.78 (4)  Sell VOO and VIG on Jun 8th, 2020 Re-Buy Bond ETFs and wait for correction in S&P 500 back to 15 % (5)  Buy EMB and TLT on Jun 9th, 2020 We are left with Bond ETFs at end of year (6)  Sell EMB and TLT on market close on Dec 31, 202 0 My strategy yielded only 9.26 % profit compared to S&P 500 index gain of 15.7 % from Jan 2nd to Dec 31st. I couldn't beat the index this time. My expectation was return of volatility which did not happen after COVD-19 started.