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Showing posts from 2016

Investment theme for 2017

2016 delivered a shock election of President Elect Donald Trump. Elections in Europe set to dominate headlines in 2017. Anger is rising against islamic refugees in Europe - these conditions favor leaders like Marine Le Pen (of France) and Geert Wilders (of Holland) to win national elections. Germany is likely to shift to far right as well. This theme will be prevalent across Europe in 2017. Election of Donald Trump thaws the ice between US-Russia relations which can seen as a positive sign in the geopolitical scene in 2017. President Putin is undoubtedly the most powerful and decisive figure in the world as of today. It is in good interest of any nation to keep friendly relations with Russia. Russia made successful military gains in Syria, Iraq & Ukraine - with change of guard in Europe & US - the war against radical islam in Middle East is likely to expand more. President Trump seems very unpredictable as of now with regards with almost everything be it foreign policy or e

Report Card of 2016 investment

President-Elect Trump beat all odds & got elected. This created an earthquake in bond markets leading to spiking of yields. My prediction of bond yields moving up softly was therefore incorrect as of Nov 9th, 2016. I recommended 4 tickers which yielded 13 % gain if bought on Jan 4th 2016 & sold on Dec 30th 2016 This portfolio beats broader S & P which grew only 10 % compared to 13 % of my portfolio!

Investment Theme for 2016

- 2016 will be difficult year for stock markets with very limited gains, similar to 2015 - Federal Reserve has started tightening monetary policy but bond markets will continue to see strong inflows - Subsequent interest rate raises by Federal reserve will be at a very slow pace, yields on sovereign bonds will not move up rapidly primarily due to the safety perception of bonds compared to stocks - Even though the U1 unemployment is dropping, wage growth continues to be low which is why inflation will be tame, expect energy, food and other commodities to be continue to be low - Geo-politics will continue to make headlines throughout 2016. Russia is likely to maintain its gains in military diplomacy. Expect escalation of armed conflicts in Middle East. - In light of these highlights, I recommend to buy ITA - US dollar will continue to appreciate which will hurt foreign income of US based corporations - HEWG seems to be an attractive option to play the currency differentials - Pre