A hotly debated subject in the markets is the looming threat of inverted yield curve (difference between yields of short and long term treasury bills/notes). Inverted yield curve has successfully predicted the last 7 recessions since 1960. There are many experts who have argued that the current inverted yield curve doesn’t pose a risk to a decade old bull market. The reasons range from unusual demand for long term debt since European debt is yielding much lower or because US government is issuing more short term bills. Future of economy of course cannot be decided by one chart. Many leading indicators like global PMI, consumer/manufacturing confidence and others are positive and indicate continued growth in 2018. However, policy errors by FED could significantly invert the yield curve and we could be in recession. Of course, we will not know a year from now if there will be economic stagnation.
Markets
Lot of optimism generated from President Trump’s tax reform bill and upcoming $1 Trillion infrastructure bill. Tax reform bill will encourage corporations to bring back money stashed aboard to US shores. It will boost CapEx or stock buybacks. It is a very positive development for US stock market in general. Plenty of regulations were terminated by new administration which are helping businesses. Consumer confidence is very high. Unemployment index is still very low. FED is actually raising interest rates which means they are seeing some improvement on ground. Most economists predict increasing GDP growth for year 2018. Volatility was very low in 2017. There is a good chance of a return of volatility in 2018 due to changing interest rates by FED. It means wider swings in indices. It creates both opportunities and disasters. ^VIX is the index to track for volatility.
Themes for 2018
There is always a theme of being protective. Playing ‘defense’ is always a strategy. In periods of downturn, people will still shop for groceries, visit doctors and use utilities. VPU, VHT or IYK are some good ETFs which provide exposure to these sectors. If looking for a mutual fund – VCSAX is another option. I also like ITA which is a combination of companies in aerospace and weapons. Given the continued risks in Middle East/Korean Peninsula and with a good possibility of boosting defense budget or with infrastructure bill – ITA has even great potential for further gains
Municipal bonds also seem to be attractive given that they will continue to attract attention of high tax payers. HYD gives exposure to a mix of municipal bonds.
US bourses have gained a lot over the year. Comparatively Europe and emerging markets in Asia are under appreciated. European Central Bank continues to buy sovereign debt which is positive for stocks and bonds. There are good opportunities for European and Asian markets to consolidate more gains in 2018. For bonds – IGOV or EMB & for stocks – EEM or IEV
There is an increasing trend from the governments in Africa Asia lead by India to increase digital payments. MA or V are likely to benefit big from this push to cashless economy. India will continue to growth a clip of 7 % or above. EPI or PIN is the best way to trade India’s markets.
Artificial Intelligence, robotics and self driving vehicles are the new buzz words. Lot of investment is in progress to develop these technologies into main stream. BOTZ offers a good choice to play to this theme.
Tax reform will help companies which are paying above 30 % in corporate tax. Technology companies are usually paying below 20 %. The companies in industrial sector like Home Depot are paying very high taxes. Wallethub.com has a very nice summary of tax rates of all companies. It will be good play to identify the ones with high tax brackets. XLI is a combination of companies in industrial sector.
China blocks US companies/products like Google, YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Twitter. It has allowed the likes of Baidu, Youku, QQ, WeChat, RenRen, Weibo, etc to flourish. Chinese companies like Huawei, Xiaomi, Lenovo, Oppo, ZTE, OnePlus, etc. have created a revolution in Asia and Africa. There is an expectation that technology sector in China will grow leaps and bounds in coming years. CQQQ is a composite ETF to pay this sector.
Don’t like a specific sector but optimistic about stock market? Simply buy VTI, DIA, IWM or SPY.
Crypto Currencies: Bitcoin appreciated 1000 % from start of 2017 till end. The hottest trade of the century! The likes of Ethereum, Litecoin, Dash, Ripple, Golem, etc. have gained by massive proportions. There are close to 1400 currencies in the markets. Future is bright for these ‘digital assets’. It is recommended to assign a small % of overall portfolio in these assets. Watch out for upcoming Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) in 2018.
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