Skip to main content

Investment Theme for 2016

- 2016 will be difficult year for stock markets with very limited gains, similar to 2015
- Federal Reserve has started tightening monetary policy but bond markets will continue to see strong inflows
- Subsequent interest rate raises by Federal reserve will be at a very slow pace, yields on sovereign bonds will not move up rapidly primarily due to the safety perception of bonds compared to stocks
- Even though the U1 unemployment is dropping, wage growth continues to be low which is why inflation will be tame, expect energy, food and other commodities to be continue to be low
- Geo-politics will continue to make headlines throughout 2016. Russia is likely to maintain its gains in military diplomacy. Expect escalation of armed conflicts in Middle East.
- In light of these highlights, I recommend to buy ITA
- US dollar will continue to appreciate which will hurt foreign income of US based corporations
- HEWG seems to be an attractive option to play the currency differentials
- Prefer large caps compared to mid-cap or small-cap. I would just load up on DIA
- In the light of loose monetary policy in both Europe and Japan – there will be gains in stock markets. Best bet to play QE by central banks there is to buy IEUR and EWJ
- Cost cutting will dominate the earnings theme and technology sector seems to be still attractive
- Emerging markets, commodities and junk bonds do not seem attractive for 2016
- Don’t like stock markets? 2016 will be best year to buy a house! Interest rates will still be low and will real estate will offer better returns in long term

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Global Warming: A Modern Myth

‘Global Warming’ has been a buzzword in political circles in this decade. The western world continues to churn out ‘doomsday prophecies’ of the world coming to an end if nothing is done to contain the greenhouse gases in atmosphere. Most of the western media claims of a consensus among climate scientists that the earth is heating up due to increase in carbon emissions caused by human activity. According to them rising temperatures of our planet will lead to dramatic rise in sea levels, floods, wide spread droughts, intense heat waves, powerful storms, etc. The very concept of ‘warming earth’ is flawed since genuine data suggests that earth temperatures are falling rather than rising. Greenhouse gases are composed of water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, ozone and CFCs. Water vapor has more than 70 % contribution to greenhouse gases. The world is currently focused on carbon dioxide with actually constitutes less than 10 % and out of that less than 2 % is due to man-made causes. The ...

Future of Indo-US relationship under Obama Administration

Barack Obama’s phenomenal and seminal victory in US presidential elections created ripples all over the world. A man of color and a person far less tried than many of his elders in his party but far more gifted politically had triumphed on the night of November 4, 2008. He is a political whiz-kid who radiates a gracious charm and is capable of inspiring rhetoric. Obama’s minority identity and his approach to transcend identity politics leave deep impression among Indian communities. Left-Liberals back in India had a celebration marked by unrestrained revelry unwary of the potential impediments for India. Obama’s message of ‘change’ is a cabinet full of ex-Clinton administration hawks. Old liberals from the old school are back and desperate to solve all world problems. The new administration has already set its imperial aims to win Afghanistan and to do so it needs Pakistan’s Army to co-operate. In one of the interviews Obama said “We should probably try to facilitate a better understan...

Rise and Fall of the Tamil Kingdom

Three decades old military conflict precipitated on May 16, 2009 when the exuberant Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa declared unanimous victory over the LTTE rebels. After the civil war officially ended this day, the status quo in Northern Sri Lanka continues to be quite disturbing with thousands of Tamil civilians being driven shelter less and forced to survive in filthy conditions. A ruthless secessionist campaign led by the elusive warrior Velupillai Prabhakaran will leave indelible stories in the pages of history of island nation of Sri Lanka . LTTE was a saga of longest armed resistance thriving since 1976 against a democratic nation in entire Asia . The Tamil community in Sri Lanka is suffering from discrimination in all aspects from the majority Sinhalese since ages. The majority Buddhist population of Sri Lanka never acknowledged ‘Tamil’ identity. Sinhalese schools do not teach Tamil and Sri Lanka recognizes only Sinhala as their official language in spite of...