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Investment Theme for 2015

Markets face headwinds from many areas - Weaker growth in China and Europe. Weaker corporate spending. Raising core interest rates. Geopolitical instability in Middle East and Russia. Aging bull markets since 2009.

There are some positive developments which can propel further momentum - Falling crude oil prices will boost GDP in
oil importing nations. Improving labor markets in US and increasing growth (even though slow).

Keeping this mind:

(1) Low gasoline prices is likely boost spending by low end wage earners:

XLP is the top pick which is very safe way to play low gasoline prices

(2)Health Care will remain in focus in 2015. Small cap index is likely to be very volatile but the gains could be substantial given that health care related spending will increase exponentially in coming years.

PSCH is a small cap ETF

(3) Exposure to emerging markets is a must. India seems on upward growth ladder, thanks to a dynamic new government which is bringing economic reforms. World Bank and IMF and other think tanks project a growth of 6.5% in 2015 up from 5-5.5 % in 2014.

PIN, EPI or INDA allow exposure to Indian equities

(4) Technology sector will continue to grow - Cell phones, tablets, other gadgets, cloud computing and social media will see plenty of spending. NASDAQ will hit record highs.

MSFT is a top individual pick. MSFT is trading at a P/E of 19 down from 50s and 30s from early 2000s. IYW is a large cap ETF relatively safer bet - gave more returns than broader market in 2014.



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-US Dollar will be a top choice given the advantage of growth and stability in the US and will be preferred by foreign investors. Strength in US dollar will keep commodities subdued. Take a position in UUP to benefit from this.
-Commodities will experience a tumultuous ride in 2015. Will stay away from metals and energy.
-Sovereign bonds were very healthy in 2014 and generated huge returns. However, bonds do not seem to be a good place to be in with the exception of Munis. Junk Bonds are likely to loose steam due to weakness in crude oil markets.
-Stay away from small caps due to high expected volatility. Large cap is safest bet in 2015.
-Loose monetary policies are expected to remain in place in Europe and Japan - Stock market gains in those regions will be very limited - there is only so much central banks can do. Avoid Europe and Japan.
-Russia seems to be in dire straits due to falling rouble and collapse of energy futures. But it is unlikely to make the nation unstable due to huge popularity of Mr. Putin and the fact that Russia is the only answer to natural gas needs of Europe. Further escalation of war is unlikely beyond Ukraine. Expect Russia to have minimal impact in US markets.
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